Nick Carn – Carn Macro Advisors

Carn Macro Advisors

Carn Macro Advisors provides analysis to a small group of financial institutions including hedge funds, foundations and sovereign wealth funds.

What we do.

Our specialty is macro financial analysis; the area where economics and finance overlap. Research is designed to enhance the context in which our clients make investment decisions. This involves identifying long term trends and their implications for financial markets with a particular focus on the underappreciated risks surrounding consensus expectations. 

As well as providing analysis we also work with clients to design tailored risk mitigation strategies.

We do not produce “maintenance” economic research nor do we provide investment advice on specific securities.

Our approach.

Our approach is multi disciplinary. From time to time economic, political or purely financial factors may be most important. Typically our approach involves researching historical precedents where these exist and then adjusting conclusions in the light of the particular circumstances of the present

The macro environment.

The rich world is growing old. This has never happened before; ever since the industrial revolution population growth and technological progress have marched hand in hand. Now populations are greying, and in Japan’s case, have started to shrink. At the same time large emerging economies, most notably China, have been rapidly industrialising.

The financial system lies along the fault line of these tectonic shifts because it intermediates between the claims of different countries and different generations. Already, financial institutions which relied on a constant supply of young people, most notably traditional whole of life insurance and defined benefit pension plans, have buckled under the strain.

Persistent international imbalances, the consequence of increased industrialisation of the developing world and chronic overconsumption in the developed world, are unresolved problems which have been constantly pushed forward into the future. Successful investing will involve understanding the associated stresses and the likely policy response.

Biography

Nicholas Carn is the founder of Carn Macro. He has over thirty years experience in the investment business, from 2002 to 2010 he was a Partner and Chief Investment Strategist at Odey Asset Management. Previously he was C.I.O of Alliance Capital Management’s Global Asset Allocation Group and C.I.O of Draycott Partners.

As a portfolio manager he has won performance awards for both equity and fixed income strategies. He is frequently cited in the press and is a regular host on CNBC. He was educated at Oxford University and the London Business School.